The number of travelers returning home for Eid is said to have dropped 24.34% from 193.6 million people last year to 146.48 million people for this year's Eid, according to a survey conducted by the Ministry of Transportation's Transportation Policy Agency and a number of academics.

Although the cause was not explained, economic observers said that sluggish purchasing power, massive layoffs, and reductions in social assistance were strong factors triggering this "anomalous" phenomenon.

Supriyono and Hamidah are two of hundreds of workers who had to abandon their plans to return home because they had no money after being laid off recently.

Their dwindling savings, they said, were only enough to cover daily needs.

"I can't go home because it's expensive, and then I'll have to pay more to go back to Jakarta. There's no way we can go home without getting anything, right?" Hamidah complained.

The number of homecoming travelers has decreased by almost 50 million people

The tradition of going home to one's hometown (mudik), which is carried out by millions of Indonesians every year before Eid, does not seem to be very popular this year.

This is because the Ministry of Transportation's Transportation Policy Agency projects that the number of travelers returning home for Eid 2025 will decrease by 24.34% compared to last year.

This means that the total number of travelers returning home this year is likely to be only 146.48 million people, a decrease of 47.12 million people from last year's 193.6 million people.

"It's true, the potential size of people's movement during the Eid homecoming this year (2025) has decreased compared to last year," said the Head of the Bureau of Communication and Public Information at the Ministry of Transportation, Budi Rahardjo, Saturday (22/03), as reported by the Antara news agency.

However, the Ministry of Transportation did not explain the cause because it was not a focus of the research conducted last February.

In addition, he claims, there is a possibility that people's decisions will change depending on the situations and conditions that influence the final decision.

However, the results of the Ministry of Transportation's survey were apparently proven.

Data from the Indonesian Transportation Information System (Siasati) shows that the accumulated passenger movement of five modes of public transportation up to D-3 of Eid was 6.75 million people, or a decrease of 4.8% from last year.

The sharpest decline occurred in intercity and interprovincial (AKAP) buses, down 10.2%. Air travel then declined by 6.8% and ships by 4.8%.

What is the reason why some residents do not go home?

One of the migrants who chose not to return home was Supriyono.

This man from Kebumen, Central Java, said he had no money to return to his hometown after being laid off in July 2024.

The company where he worked, PT Aditec Cakrawiyasa, a producer of gas compressors, regulators, and Quantum brand hoses, was declared bankrupt by the Central Jakarta Commercial Court on July 22, 2024.

The decision resulted in the termination of employment of 511 workers.

The father of two said that after the bankruptcy decision, hundreds of workers, including himself, had not received their due rights: severance pay, several months of salary arrears, and two consecutive years of holiday allowances.

In total, PT Aditec Cakrawiyasa still owes him around Rp. 100 million.

"So, at that time, there were several months where we weren't paid in full. For example, I didn't receive my full salary for ten months," Supriyono told BBC News Indonesia on Sunday (March 30).

"There's not even a holiday allowance. Last year, they only paid Rp. 500,000, and this year, Rp. 1 million. So there's still a shortfall."

"I haven't received any severance pay at all."

Supriyono, along with hundreds of workers, remains uncertain about when their rights will be paid. According to the court ruling, all company arrears can only be paid after the seized assets are sold.

The problem, said Supriyono, is that until now none of these assets have been sold.

Amidst this uncertainty, he's forced to take odd jobs, whether as a construction worker or a repairman. Basically, anything that can make money, the 48-year-old said.

Because if he were to work as a factory worker again, he continued, it would be impossible considering his age, which was no longer young.

"Nowadays, the majority of workers are required to be at least 18 to 25 years old. What can I do if I'm over 40?" he asked.

To survive, Supriyono had to really save.

His savings have been working for 28 years, he only uses it for daily needs and the education of his children who are still in college and high school.

He even put off going home for Eid.

"I'm unemployed, laid off, and have no steady income... how can I go home, when I know the cost of going home," he said weakly.

"This year has truly been the most difficult time for my family and I, because every year we always have to go back to our hometown in Kebumen."

"There's a feeling of sadness, because during Eid, people go home, but we can't. Usually, we gather with family, visit with siblings, uncles, and cousins... I miss the visits and gatherings."

Even during Eid, he said he wouldn't go anywhere, just stay at home with his small family. No new clothes or special snacks.

Hamidah, a migrant from Labuhan Maringgai, East Lampung Regency, also experienced a similar fate.

This woman in her forties was unable to go home like in previous years because she had no money after being unilaterally dismissed by the garment company where she worked at the end of last February.

"I was told to sign a resignation letter before my contract expired without any clear reason," Hamidah told BBC News Indonesia, Sunday (30/03).

Hamidah said that since being laid off, her mind has been in turmoil, especially as Eid approaches. She's torn: she misses her hometown but her finances are tight.

"I finally decided not to go home, because the transportation costs are expensive now, right? Then I'll have to use the money to come back here again," he said.

Every time they went home for Eid, she used to ride a motorcycle with her husband. Upon arriving at Merak Harbor in Banten, they boarded a boat to Bakauheni Harbor.

After that, he still had to continue the 66 kilometer land journey to his hometown.

And every time she goes home, Hamidah must have at least Rp. 3 million in her pocket.

"If we add up the total round trip fare for the two of us, it's Rp. 600,000. But the problem is, I have a large family, and many of my nieces and nephews are in the village. It's impossible to go home without giving anything, right?"

"Then we talk about our difficulties, it seems impossible, I don't want to bother the people in the village."

Hamidah also said her extended family was disappointed she didn't return home. Even her older sister wouldn't talk to her.

He said he could understand the disappointment, because only once a year could they meet face to face and visit their parents' graves.

"As my sister says, no one knows how long they'll live, so if possible, I'd like to go home for Eid. I also miss seeing my relatives and nephews."

"But what can I do? My savings are only enough for this month, and I don't have any for next month."

Now, Hamidah only hopes that next year she can go home again.

"Well, hopefully I can get a job quickly after Eid," he said hopefully.

What are the factors causing the number of homecoming travelers to plummet?

The Director of Public Policy from the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), Media Wahyudi Askar, explained that the decline in the number of travelers returning home during this year's Eid holiday season was influenced by several factors.

First, what is very obvious is the sluggish purchasing power of the people.

"People's purchasing power is currently at its most difficult. The increase in prices for basic necessities and services like bus, train, and even plane tickets has definitely had an impact," he explained to BBC News Indonesia on Sunday (March 30).

Celios's observations indicate that the collapse in people's purchasing power has actually been felt since the middle of last year. At that time, Indonesia recorded five consecutive months of deflation from May to September 2024.

Deflation continued again last February, or one month before Ramadan—a time when public consumption levels usually increase.

"So indeed people's purchasing power is at its lowest."

This sluggish purchasing power, Askar continued, is inextricably linked to the high number of layoffs (PHK) across various sectors, from manufacturing and technology to banking, processing, services, and retail.

But the manufacturing sector is one of the sectors that contributes the most to layoffs.

The Ministry of Manpower recorded that approximately 80,000 people were laid off throughout 2024. This number increased compared to the previous year, which was around 60,000 people.

"And when people get laid off, they probably save their money to buy essentials, right?" he added.

The next factor besides layoffs is business uncertainty and stagnant wages.

"People are smart, right? They have to be careful in managing their finances. Those who own businesses are struggling due to the economic slowdown, rather than going home and spending their money, it's better to hold on to it."

Finally, there has been a decline in social assistance to the public. Celios' observations indicate a decrease of around 16%, from Rp 168 trillion last year to just Rp 140 trillion.

According to Askar, social assistance is the "lifeline" for lower-class communities to survive. He also said this assistance is used to run businesses in their respective cities.

"In the current situation, money from social assistance can be used for going home."

Askar stated that the decline in the number of travelers returning home should not be taken lightly. The decreasing amount of money circulating in the community is a sign of Indonesia's declining economic growth.

Because this is the moment when large-scale money flows from cities to villages should occur, and it also serves as an indicator of ongoing economic activity.

When that doesn't happen, the implications are huge, Askar claims.

"The decline in travelers returning home has had an impact on reducing economic inequality. This is because money flows not only from cities to villages, but also from outside Indonesia to within the country," he explained.

"If that money decreases, some regions will only receive a small amount of cash flow from people living in cities. So, in aggregate, income inequality between regions will increase."

"Because some areas depend on consumption and shopping during the homecoming period," he concluded.

"For example, during Eid, you buy souvenirs, go shopping at the stalls, or hire a motorcycle taxi driver in your village. If the people who live away from home don't come home, the money won't be distributed."

Besides its impact on economic inequality, the homecoming period can also actually reduce poverty in the regions. For example, Askar said, many mosques in villages typically collect donations during Eid al-Fitr.

The proceeds from these activities—which reach tens or even hundreds of millions—are used to help orphans.

So, if the number of travelers decreases, automatically the money to help alleviate poverty in the region will also decrease.

"Finally, the Eid al-Fitr holiday also provides job opportunities for the seasonal unemployed in the regions. Those who are unemployed suddenly find themselves selling drinks or food during Eid."

"If migrants don't come home, their income will be small, right?"

That's why Askar considers the decline in homecoming travelers to be a warning sign. If the situation persists, it will be difficult for the government to achieve economic growth of 8%.

"This means the economic slowdown will continue," he explained.

The government denies that money circulation decreases during Eid

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto emphasized that money circulation during Eid al-Fitr 2025 will not decline, but will remain at a moderate level.

This was conveyed following a prediction from the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) which estimated that Eid money turnover would only reach IDR 137.97 trillion, down 12.3 percent from IDR 157.3 trillion last year.

"Moderate. Last year's Eid al-Fitr was marked by the presidential and legislative elections, so it was different," said Airlangga at the Presidential Palace Complex, Central Jakarta, Wednesday (26/03), as reported by Kompas.com .

He added that the comparison could not be made directly considering the two major events last year, namely the Presidential Election (Pilpres) and the Legislative Election (Pileg).

Airlangga also emphasized that cash flow during the Eid al-Fitr holiday season will not decrease thanks to a number of government interventions, including the social assistance (bansos) distribution program.

"It hasn't decreased because many programs and social assistance are already underway. We'll see (Kadin's predictions)," he said.

As previously reported, Sarman Simanjorang, Deputy Chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) for Regional Autonomy Development, stated that the decline in money circulation during Eid 2025 was due to a decrease in the number of travelers returning home.

"If last year's estimated cash flow during Eid al-Fitr 2024 reached Rp 157.3 trillion, then the estimated cash flow during the Eid al-Fitr holiday in 2025 is predicted to reach Rp 137.975 trillion, a decrease of 12.3 percent," he said in a written statement.

For your information, in 2022, cash flow during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr reached IDR 150 trillion. In 2023, it reached IDR 240 trillion.

SOURCE: BBC Indonesia & Liputan 6

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